WASHINGTON: A congressional round of applause and a bump in the polls: US President Joe Biden has newfound political momentum from his handling of the war in Ukraine, but experts warn it might not last. Last week, the 79-year-old president got a lengthy standing ovation from both Democrats and Republicans in Congress when he underlined America's steadfast support for Ukraine during his State of the Union speech.

The moment of strong bipartisanship was remarkable for a country where political divisions run deep, especially ahead of hotly contested midterm elections later this year. With low polling numbers and his reform projects stalled in Congress, can the US president translate this moment more broadly and benefit from a "rally 'round the flag effect?" The concept, put forth by political scientist John Mueller in 1970, suggests that during international crises, Americans tend to hold more favorable views of their commander-in-chief. Apparent gains on the COVID-19 front certainly also play a role, even if they is overshadowed by the war in Ukraine.

"We're seeing right now... pretty solid support among the public and even among Republicans for the actions that he's taken," said Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz. Those actions, including broad sanctions on Russia and financial and military support for Ukraine have even "had a modest spillover effect in terms of his overall approval rating," Abramowitz added.

Presidential 'reset'

Biden's job approval now sits at 42.7 percent, according to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight-still low, but notably higher than the 40 percent he had on February 27. As America's oldest president-he was 78 when he took office-Biden is often attacked by Republicans for having low energy and lacking authority. The Ukraine crisis can therefore help Biden "change his image as a leader with the public in general," as well as "gain back some of the grounds that he gave up with the withdrawal from Afghanistan that was... perceived as pretty disastrous," Abramowitz said.

The researcher attributes Biden's bump in popularity largely to improved views within his own party, even though former president Donald Trump embarrassed some fellow Republicans with comments lauding Russian President Vladimir Putin's intelligence. For Capri Cafaro, a former Democratic lawmaker in Ohio's state Senate and current professor at American University, Biden is attempting to "reset" his presidency. She points out that during his State of the Union speech, Biden spent a significant portion on Ukraine, but he also highlighted key issues for people across the political spectrum: immigration and police support for conservatives, and abortion rights and welfare for progressives.

Out with big transformational plans, in with concrete projects: lower drug prices, rebuild bridges, open factories. Cafaro thinks that the shift by Biden is an attempt to "reframe" himself as "someone who was more pragmatic or moderate," after months of being framed as a "kind of a puppet of this progressive coalition that... got him elected."

'No-win situation'

But Cafaro also says Biden is "in a no-win situation, no matter what." "You always run a risk if you're trying to, you know, please everyone. No one really believes that you have a conviction," she said. The White House will also have to manage the Russia sanctions' collateral damage on the American economy which has already seen record levels of inflation in recent months. Before Biden unveiled an embargo on Russian oil Tuesday, 71 percent of Americans said they would support actions against Russia even if it raised gas prices, according to a Quinnipiac University survey.

The crisis has also given the president a clear culprit to blame for rising gas prices, which had steadily increased before the Russian invasion. On Tuesday, Biden told a journalist who asked what he could do to lower prices: "Can't do much right now... Russia is responsible." Nonetheless, Republicans still intend to make high prices a key point in their election campaigns. "Today, it is 'Russia's fault.' Before that, it was OPEC's fault. Before that, it was 'because of the virus,'" tweeted Kevin McCarthy, the lead Republican in the House of Representatives. "Serious question: How bad will gas prices have to be before he accepts some responsibility?" - AFP