Hopes for second Brexit referendum reach fever pitch

LONDON: Britain's main opposition Labor Party said yesterday it would press for contempt proceedings against the government if Prime Minister Theresa May fails to produce the full legal advice she has received on her Brexit deal. The threat is yet another hurdle May must clear before parliament votes on Dec. 11 on her deal for Britain's exit from the European Union, its biggest shift in foreign and trade policy for more than 40 years.

With the odds looking stacked against her, May is touring the country and media studios to try to win over critics including both eurosceptics and europhiles who say the deal will leave Britain a diminished state, still linked economically to the EU but no longer with a say over the rules. May often says her deal will protect jobs and end free movement. She hopes her argument that it is the only feasible deal with the EU and that voting it down will raise the risks of a "no-deal" Brexit or no Brexit at all will concentrate minds.

Labor has said it will vote against the deal. Yesterday its Brexit spokesman, Keir Starmer, increased the pressure on May by saying Labor would start contempt proceedings against the government if it did not publish its legal advice. He also said Labor would seek a vote of no confidence in the government if she lost the vote, a widely forecast outcome. "In nine days time, parliament has got to take probably the most important decision it has taken for a generation and it's obviously important that we know the full legal implications of what the prime minister wants us to sign up to," Starmer said.

"I don't want to go down this path ... (but) if they don't produce it tomorrow then we will start contempt proceedings. This would be a collision course between the government and parliament," he told Sky News. British media said the contempt move was also supported by the small Northern Irish party which props up May's minority government, underlining her precarious position in parliament. The government has promised to give lawmakers access to the legal analysis of the Brexit deal and Attorney General Geoffrey Cox will make a statement to parliament today. Opposition parties suspect it will only offer a summary of that advice.

"This is an unprecedented situation and that's why we've got an unprecedented situation just tomorrow when the attorney general will be making a statement to parliament," Conservative Party Chairman Brandon Lewis told Sky News. "And I would hope again that when colleagues hear what the attorney general has to say, they will be satisfied that the government has delivered on what it said it would do." Under parliamentary rules, it is up to the speaker to decide whether to allow a contempt motion to be voted upon. If it passes, it would then be referred to a committee which would rule on whether contempt had taken place. If so, it would then recommend a punishment which lawmakers must agree.

Second referendum

Meanwhile, hopes for a second referendum on EU membership are rising in Britain amid heightened uncertainty over Brexit, but big hurdles remain-from the timing to legal complexities on both sides of the Channel. Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to convince British lawmakers to back her Brexit deal-formally signed off by EU leaders last weekend-in a key vote in parliament on December 11. If, as widely expected, it is voted down, what happens next remains highly uncertain. But the backers of a so-called "People's Vote" argue it opens up an opportunity to ask Britons to think again.

"There is a growing momentum behind the campaign for a second referendum," said Constantine Fraser, an analyst research consultancy TS Lombard. "It will become a serious option on the table if, or more likely when, Theresa May's deal is voted down. "I wouldn't say it's a probability, but it's a likelihood that's growing fast." Second referendum call 'inevitable' -In the latest instance of second referendum activism, the pro-EU Best for Britain group on Saturday launched a new advertising campaign on vans targeting the districts of "key MPs like Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn".

The support of the opposition party, which has delivered mixed messages on the issue-arguing for all options to be left on the table-is seen as crucial to force another poll. John McDonnell, Labor's finance spokesman, fuelled hopes the leadership was moving closer to the idea by saying Tuesday it was "inevitable" the party would support a second poll if it could not force a general election. The hopes of second referendum advocates were further strengthened by EU President Donald Tusk on Friday. Speaking at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Tusk said a rejection of the deal by the British parliament would leave just two options-"no deal or no Brexit at all".

'It's not impossible'

There are significant structural barriers to a second vote, according to analysts. "You would need the government to actually table a proposal, have a vote in favor of it, which would require cross-party support," Nick Wright, a fellow in EU politics at University College London said. May has repeatedly ruled out halting Brexit or holding another vote, and it would be hard without her support. "It's not impossible," noted Fraser. "If it becomes clear that there's political pressure for it in parliament, the government may have no other option politically." A cross-party group of MPs on Thursday laid down an amendment to May's EU withdrawal legislation in a bid to stop a no-deal Brexit emerging as the default fallback option. The proposed amendment would hand power to lawmakers if her plan is rejected in the House of Commons-and could potentially provide a legislative pathway for a referendum. Labor's Shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer said it had his "full support", tweeting it was a "great amendment".- Agencies